Blog, Forecasts

Hurricane Florence Update 9/14/18

Good afternoon! I hope everyone impacted by Hurricane Florence is safe. I want to give you another update with information from the latest advisory and discussion. Images I will be using are for informational purposes from the National Hurricane Center.  Also, there will not be any affiliate links in this post.

Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The latest data indicates the storm is moving West at a very slow pace of 5 miles per hour. This slow movement is expected through Saturday because of weak steering upper air currents. A trough is expected to move through the Great Lakes region and eventually pick up the remnants of Hurricane Florence and move North and Northeast.

Hurricane Florence Path Cone 09.14.18 2pm

Maximum sustained winds are at 75 miles per hour with hurricane force winds extending 35 miles from the storm’s center and tropical storm force winds extending 170 miles from the storm’s center. Storm surge flooding along the coast will slowly subside through tomorrow. However, freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall continues.

Hurricane Florence Rainfall Prediction 09.14.18 2pm

Areas closest to the center of Hurricane Florence will experience at a minimum of 20 inches of rainfall. Some areas have already measured as much and will receive more – possibly as much as 40 inches of rainfall. Even though the coastal flooding storm surge will be subsiding, it will take several hours. Storm surge was pushed up into the Pamlico River and Neuse River, where rainfall will flow into and flood the region further.

Hurricane Florence Public Advisory 09.14.18

Not much movement is expected over the next 24-48 hours, so catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall will continue. Please stay safe.

Take care,

Tammy

Advertisements
Blog, Forecasts

Hurricane Florence Update 9/13/18

Good morning! I want to give you an update on Hurricane Florence with information from the latest advisory and discussion. Images I will be using are for informational purposes from the National Hurricane Center.  Also, there will not be any affiliate links in this post.

Beginning late yesterday, Florence started to weaken slightly from vertical wind shear near the southern part of the storm. The wind shear is from a system over Florida and Florence is expected to move away from the wind shear today into warmer waters. Hurricane Florence is presently a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour. Keep in mind the tropical storm force wind field extends 195 miles out from the center of this hurricane.

Hurricane Florence Wind Arrival Times 09.13.18 8am

Storm surge and heavy rainfall forecasts have not changed and still present tremendous danger to the coast and most of North Carolina and South Carolina. As of the 8:00AM advisory, Florence is moving Northwest and has slowed to 12 miles per hour. It is expected to slow further as it approaches land.

Hurricane Florence Rainfall Prediction 09.13.18 8am

Hurricane Florence is currently forecast to move more westward later today/tonight and eventually move slightly southward along part of the northern coast of South Carolina before moving inland.

Hurricane Florence Path Cone 09.13.18 8am

North Carolina’s Outer Banks and South Carolina coast are experiencing the outer rain bands from Florence. Conditions will continue to worsen throughout the day into tomorrow for North Carolina and South Carolina.

Continental US - Longwave Window - IR

Hopefully your hurricane evacuation or provision plans are complete. During the next 24-48 hours, conditions will deteriorate to hurricane force winds, storm surge, and rain. Please keep yourself and your family safe, including pets.

Take care,

Tammy

Blog, Forecasts

Hurricane Florence Update 9/12/18

Good afternoon! I want to give you an update on Hurricane Florence and what to expect in the next day or so. Images I will be using are for informational purposes from the National Hurricane Center.  Also, there will not be any affiliate links in this post.

As of the 2:00pm Eastern Time advisory, Hurricane Florence has weakened slightly to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour. Hurricane Florence has gone through at least two Eyewall Replacement Cycles (ERC) which temporarily weakened the storm, but the wind field expanded. The expanded wind field will lead to a significant storm surge event.

Hurricane force winds (in brown) now extend 70 miles out from the center of the hurricane. Tropical storm force winds (in yellow) now extend 175 miles out from the center of the hurricane.

Hurricane Florence Path Cone 09.12.18 2pm

You can see that hurricane force and tropical storm force winds extend will beyond the probable path cone of the eye of the storm. The strongest winds will be in the Northeast quadrant of the storm, along with the highest storm surge. However, that does not mean that anyone outside of that area is safe. The winds of Hurricane Florence will cause catastrophic damage, plus there will be significant rainfall with this system.

Hurricane Florence Rainfall Prediction 09.12.18 2pm

Based on the current predicted path, the North Carolina coast will receive over 20 inches of rain. These estimates may change dependent upon storm track and speed. Currently, Hurricane Florence is expected to slow down as it gets closer to the coast and could potentially dump well in excess of 20 inches of rain along the coast. Hurricane Florence is now moving Northwest, changing from its previous course of West Northwest. Any further shift in the storm’s track will change the rainfall location and possibly rainfall totals. Anyone within the range of Hurricane Florence’s path should prepare to evacuate (if in the direct path of this storm along the coast) or have provisions in the event of a long-term power outage further inland. Flash flooding is expected inland and driving into a flooded roadway is way too dangerous.

What to expect over the next 12-24 hours?

Hurricane Florence Wind Arrival Times 09.12.18 2pm

Tropical storm force winds could reach the North Carolina coast by Thursday 8:00AM. As you can see from the above graphic, these winds will be constant through about Wednesday 2:00PM before hurricane force winds reach land. Plans for evacuation for those of you along the coast and near the coast, need to be complete today. Plans for provisions for those of you further inland should be complete today or very early tomorrow. I will provide another update tomorrow morning.

Take care,

Tammy

Blog, Plants, Weather

Snow, Thunderstorms, & Forsythia

HELLO APRIL!!!!! In the Midwest, especially Ohio, we can experience many types of weather within a few days when the seasons are changing.

Last week I spotted a couple dandelions blooming by the sidewalk (and I didn’t think to take a picture at the time) and now that it’s been cooler the last few days and cloudy today, I don’t see them.

Yesterday morning I woke up to snow.

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

It didn’t stay long and was melted by afternoon. Yesterday was cool and today’s high temperature is supposed to be almost 70 degrees with thunderstorms. Yep, this is spring in Ohio.

Ahh, I hear rumbles of thunder – my favorite sound. I used to get into trouble as a kid because I would hear thunder and go outside to watch the storm roll in. My parents would be yelling at me to get inside, which I did once the gust front hit and it was lightning and raining. But it didn’t stop there. I would go into my bedroom and watch the storm from my window. Also, I always seem to get my best sleep when it storms at night.

We have gotten quite a bit of rain today. Currently, the National Weather Service has issued Flood Watches and Flood Warnings in my region because the ground was already saturated before the heavy rain today. I even noticed some puddling of water in my yard.

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

After I took this picture, I was shutting the door when I noticed yellow. I thought, Oh My Gosh, Did I just see the Forsythia blooming? I opened the door again and was pleased to see it was blooming!

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

Have you heard the tale about Forsythia? Well, the story goes that once you see it blooming there will be only three more snow falls and winter will be over. The snow fall may accumulate or it may just be flurries. Either way, Forsythia blooming is a very welcomed sign of spring! Here’s a thought….let’s test this old wives tale and see how many times it snows after today!

Tammy

Blog, Weather

Mother Nature’s Humor

Yesterday, March 20th, was the first day of Spring. Wouldn’t you think Mother Nature knows when this season begins? I would think so!!! Mother Nature has a sense of humor, as the Midwest has experienced a late season snowfall. BUT, I can’t complain too much because I feel for those that live on the east coast dealing with another N’oreaster.

Well, part of me really (and I mean REALLY) wants to have warmer weather. I want to open the windows, feel the warm breeze, and let fresh air all through the house. Of course, my cats would appreciate open windows too!

The other part of me thinks nice weather can wait a little longer….WHAT?! My spring cleaning isn’t finished. My inside projects aren’t finished. I’m not ready for mowing….flowerbeds will need weeded….I have to pick out flowers….plant them….water them….mow….mow….mow. I think I’m okay with a couple more weeks of cooler weather. At least I can get my spring cleaning done (fingers crossed, wink-wink).

Tammy

Blog, Weather

Calm (or Panic) Before the Storm

Starting late tomorrow, we are bracing for freezing rain and snow….Woohoo Winter Storm Hunter!!!!  This storm has been talked about by many on Facebook, Messenger, weather groups, colleagues (you get the idea) because the initial response was WHAT?!?  Two different scenarios – One with about two INCHES of snow and the other with about two FEET of snow! Yikes!! Here is what the WSYX weather team posted Tuesday on Facebook:

Tale of Two Storms Jan 2018

How can there be that much of disagreement between weather models?  At the time, the storm was still moving in from the Pacific Ocean providing all of the rain that hit California causing mud slides in the Santa Barbara area.  So the storm system appeared on radar and satellite imagery but more data was needed to better forecast this storm.  Once over land, and especially east of the Rocky Mountains, meteorologists could get a more realistic idea of what to expect from Winter Storm Hunter.

The National Weather Service (NWS) offices throughout the country launch radiosondes, or weather balloons with a sensor package attached, to take upper air observation readings.  Radiosondes report pressure, temperature, humidity, and in some cases wind speed and direction, at various levels in the atmosphere.  This data is added to the weather models, which help give a more accurate prediction of upcoming weather events.

radiosonde launch

This photo is courtesy of NWS Wilmington Ohio Facebook page from a tour showing a radiosonde launch.  The launches are performed at 12-hour intervals, and in the anticipation of severe weather events, special launches are sometimes done at 6-hour intervals.  So as this winter storm tracked eastward, more upper air data was input into the weather models.  However, even today there is still not 100% consensus on how much snowfall to expect…..

Tale of Two Storms Jan 2018 Update Weds

As you can see, the snowfall estimations are closer together but still not close in agreement.  This scenario highlights the challenges meteorologists face when forecasting weather, as it certainly isn’t just looking at the radar (or looking out the window – HA!!).  Sorry for such a short post.  I’m going to get back to looking at weather data for this storm.  I’ll post pictures of how this storm rolls through and see how much snow actually falls.  Stay posted and stay safe!

Tammy

Blog, Weather

Passion for Weather

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAOLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

The other day I was getting reacquainted with my camera ~ I took these pictures of cirrus clouds. These are high clouds that are wispy and feathery in appearance. The weather in Ohio has been great with sunny skies and warm temperatures the last few days. I’m watching the skies and the weather data to see if severe thunderstorms are in our future!

As for my passion for weather, I like to watch storms as they move into the area. A couple years ago, I took these storm pictures from my driveway.

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAOLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAOLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAOLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAOLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAOLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

And the date set on my camera was wrong…HA! We don’t get storms like this in January. I do like to have the date of the pictures for reference, but this is obviously not January weather!

As I work to make accurate weather forecasts, I will post them here for you to see and make plans for your day…..getting to work, kids to school, yardwork, planting flowers, and whatever else comes to mind. I have to say thunderstorms and tornadoes are my favorite weather phenomena. I’m sure I will have much to say about them this summer. Stay tuned!

Tammy