Blog, Forecasts

Hurricane Florence Update 9/13/18

Good morning! I want to give you an update on Hurricane Florence with information from the latest advisory and discussion. Images I will be using are for informational purposes from the National Hurricane Center.  Also, there will not be any affiliate links in this post.

Beginning late yesterday, Florence started to weaken slightly from vertical wind shear near the southern part of the storm. The wind shear is from a system over Florida and Florence is expected to move away from the wind shear today into warmer waters. Hurricane Florence is presently a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour. Keep in mind the tropical storm force wind field extends 195 miles out from the center of this hurricane.

Hurricane Florence Wind Arrival Times 09.13.18 8am

Storm surge and heavy rainfall forecasts have not changed and still present tremendous danger to the coast and most of North Carolina and South Carolina. As of the 8:00AM advisory, Florence is moving Northwest and has slowed to 12 miles per hour. It is expected to slow further as it approaches land.

Hurricane Florence Rainfall Prediction 09.13.18 8am

Hurricane Florence is currently forecast to move more westward later today/tonight and eventually move slightly southward along part of the northern coast of South Carolina before moving inland.

Hurricane Florence Path Cone 09.13.18 8am

North Carolina’s Outer Banks and South Carolina coast are experiencing the outer rain bands from Florence. Conditions will continue to worsen throughout the day into tomorrow for North Carolina and South Carolina.

Continental US - Longwave Window - IR

Hopefully your hurricane evacuation or provision plans are complete. During the next 24-48 hours, conditions will deteriorate to hurricane force winds, storm surge, and rain. Please keep yourself and your family safe, including pets.

Take care,

Tammy

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Blog, Weather

Calm (or Panic) Before the Storm

Starting late tomorrow, we are bracing for freezing rain and snow….Woohoo Winter Storm Hunter!!!!  This storm has been talked about by many on Facebook, Messenger, weather groups, colleagues (you get the idea) because the initial response was WHAT?!?  Two different scenarios – One with about two INCHES of snow and the other with about two FEET of snow! Yikes!! Here is what the WSYX weather team posted Tuesday on Facebook:

Tale of Two Storms Jan 2018

How can there be that much of disagreement between weather models?  At the time, the storm was still moving in from the Pacific Ocean providing all of the rain that hit California causing mud slides in the Santa Barbara area.  So the storm system appeared on radar and satellite imagery but more data was needed to better forecast this storm.  Once over land, and especially east of the Rocky Mountains, meteorologists could get a more realistic idea of what to expect from Winter Storm Hunter.

The National Weather Service (NWS) offices throughout the country launch radiosondes, or weather balloons with a sensor package attached, to take upper air observation readings.  Radiosondes report pressure, temperature, humidity, and in some cases wind speed and direction, at various levels in the atmosphere.  This data is added to the weather models, which help give a more accurate prediction of upcoming weather events.

radiosonde launch

This photo is courtesy of NWS Wilmington Ohio Facebook page from a tour showing a radiosonde launch.  The launches are performed at 12-hour intervals, and in the anticipation of severe weather events, special launches are sometimes done at 6-hour intervals.  So as this winter storm tracked eastward, more upper air data was input into the weather models.  However, even today there is still not 100% consensus on how much snowfall to expect…..

Tale of Two Storms Jan 2018 Update Weds

As you can see, the snowfall estimations are closer together but still not close in agreement.  This scenario highlights the challenges meteorologists face when forecasting weather, as it certainly isn’t just looking at the radar (or looking out the window – HA!!).  Sorry for such a short post.  I’m going to get back to looking at weather data for this storm.  I’ll post pictures of how this storm rolls through and see how much snow actually falls.  Stay posted and stay safe!

Tammy

Blog, Weather

Passion for Weather

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The other day I was getting reacquainted with my camera ~ I took these pictures of cirrus clouds. These are high clouds that are wispy and feathery in appearance. The weather in Ohio has been great with sunny skies and warm temperatures the last few days. I’m watching the skies and the weather data to see if severe thunderstorms are in our future!

As for my passion for weather, I like to watch storms as they move into the area. A couple years ago, I took these storm pictures from my driveway.

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And the date set on my camera was wrong…HA! We don’t get storms like this in January. I do like to have the date of the pictures for reference, but this is obviously not January weather!

As I work to make accurate weather forecasts, I will post them here for you to see and make plans for your day…..getting to work, kids to school, yardwork, planting flowers, and whatever else comes to mind. I have to say thunderstorms and tornadoes are my favorite weather phenomena. I’m sure I will have much to say about them this summer. Stay tuned!

Tammy