Forecasts – Mom's Brown Thumb

Dusting Off Forecasting Skills

November 20, 2018November 20, 2018 momsbrownthumb

This has been sitting in my draft folder for quite some time now. I keep thinking about further developing my forecasting skills, but haven’t put my thoughts into action. Part of my idea for this blog was to post forecasts to help you plan your gardening (or any other) activities. I’ll be honest…..my biggest fear is making a mistake (me being a perfectionist).

When I was in college, one of my meteorology classes required participation in a Weather Challenge. This was a forecasting competition with other meteorology students, educators, and others who chose to take part. The cities we had to forecast were predetermined and participants had to forecast daily the low/high temperature, precipitation total, and highest wind speed for two weeks. It was a difficult competition, and I was lucky enough to forecast Tampa FL very well.

Initially, the forecasts will be for Ohio starting with Central Ohio and expanding from there. I will post the weekly forecast on Sundays so you can make your plans.

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No matter whether it’s sunny, cloudy, rainy, or even snowy, I would love to hear what you are working on in your garden!

Blog, Forecasts

Hurricane Florence Update 9/14/18

September 14, 2018 momsbrownthumb

Good afternoon! I hope everyone impacted by Hurricane Florence is safe. I want to give you another update with information from the latest advisory and discussion. Images I will be using are for informational purposes from the National Hurricane Center. Also, there will not be any affiliate links in this post.

Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The latest data indicates the storm is moving West at a very slow pace of 5 miles per hour. This slow movement is expected through Saturday because of weak steering upper air currents. A trough is expected to move through the Great Lakes region and eventually pick up the remnants of Hurricane Florence and move North and Northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are at 75 miles per hour with hurricane force winds extending 35 miles from the storm’s center and tropical storm force winds extending 170 miles from the storm’s center. Storm surge flooding along the coast will slowly subside through tomorrow. However, freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall continues.

Areas closest to the center of Hurricane Florence will experience at a minimum of 20 inches of rainfall. Some areas have already measured as much and will receive more – possibly as much as 40 inches of rainfall. Even though the coastal flooding storm surge will be subsiding, it will take several hours. Storm surge was pushed up into the Pamlico River and Neuse River, where rainfall will flow into and flood the region further.

Not much movement is expected over the next 24-48 hours, so catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall will continue. Please stay safe.

Take care,

Blog, Forecasts

Hurricane Florence Update 9/13/18

September 13, 2018September 13, 2018 momsbrownthumb

Good morning! I want to give you an update on Hurricane Florence with information from the latest advisory and discussion. Images I will be using are for informational purposes from the National Hurricane Center. Also, there will not be any affiliate links in this post.

Beginning late yesterday, Florence started to weaken slightly from vertical wind shear near the southern part of the storm. The wind shear is from a system over Florida and Florence is expected to move away from the wind shear today into warmer waters. Hurricane Florence is presently a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour. Keep in mind the tropical storm force wind field extends 195 miles out from the center of this hurricane.

Storm surge and heavy rainfall forecasts have not changed and still present tremendous danger to the coast and most of North Carolina and South Carolina. As of the 8:00AM advisory, Florence is moving Northwest and has slowed to 12 miles per hour. It is expected to slow further as it approaches land.

Hurricane Florence is currently forecast to move more westward later today/tonight and eventually move slightly southward along part of the northern coast of South Carolina before moving inland.

North Carolina’s Outer Banks and South Carolina coast are experiencing the outer rain bands from Florence. Conditions will continue to worsen throughout the day into tomorrow for North Carolina and South Carolina.

Hopefully your hurricane evacuation or provision plans are complete. During the next 24-48 hours, conditions will deteriorate to hurricane force winds, storm surge, and rain. Please keep yourself and your family safe, including pets.

Take care,

Blog, Forecasts

Hurricane Florence Update 9/12/18

September 12, 2018 momsbrownthumb

Good afternoon! I want to give you an update on Hurricane Florence and what to expect in the next day or so. Images I will be using are for informational purposes from the National Hurricane Center. Also, there will not be any affiliate links in this post.

As of the 2:00pm Eastern Time advisory, Hurricane Florence has weakened slightly to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour. Hurricane Florence has gone through at least two Eyewall Replacement Cycles (ERC) which temporarily weakened the storm, but the wind field expanded. The expanded wind field will lead to a significant storm surge event.

Hurricane force winds (in brown) now extend 70 miles out from the center of the hurricane. Tropical storm force winds (in yellow) now extend 175 miles out from the center of the hurricane.

You can see that hurricane force and tropical storm force winds extend will beyond the probable path cone of the eye of the storm. The strongest winds will be in the Northeast quadrant of the storm, along with the highest storm surge. However, that does not mean that anyone outside of that area is safe. The winds of Hurricane Florence will cause catastrophic damage, plus there will be significant rainfall with this system.

Based on the current predicted path, the North Carolina coast will receive over 20 inches of rain. These estimates may change dependent upon storm track and speed. Currently, Hurricane Florence is expected to slow down as it gets closer to the coast and could potentially dump well in excess of 20 inches of rain along the coast. Hurricane Florence is now moving Northwest, changing from its previous course of West Northwest. Any further shift in the storm’s track will change the rainfall location and possibly rainfall totals. Anyone within the range of Hurricane Florence’s path should prepare to evacuate (if in the direct path of this storm along the coast) or have provisions in the event of a long-term power outage further inland. Flash flooding is expected inland and driving into a flooded roadway is way too dangerous.

What to expect over the next 12-24 hours?

Tropical storm force winds could reach the North Carolina coast by Thursday 8:00AM. As you can see from the above graphic, these winds will be constant through about Wednesday 2:00PM before hurricane force winds reach land. Plans for evacuation for those of you along the coast and near the coast, need to be complete today. Plans for provisions for those of you further inland should be complete today or very early tomorrow. I will provide another update tomorrow morning.

Take care,

Blog, Forecasts, Weather

Hurricane Florence

September 10, 2018September 10, 2018 momsbrownthumb

As of this morning, Hurricane Florence is a Category 4 hurricane with the potential to strengthen to a Category 5 storm. The most recent air reconnaissance data indicates Florence has the potential to further strengthen.

So what does this mean? The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rates hurricanes on a scale of 1-5 based on sustained wind speed. From the National Hurricane Center’s website, here is a breakdown of the scale and potential destruction:

Cat 1 74-95 mph winds “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage”

Cat 2 96-110 mph winds “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage”

Cat 3 111-129 mph winds “Devastating damage will occur”

Cat 4 130-156 mph winds “Catastrophic damage will occur”

Cat 5 157 mph or more “Catastrophic damage will occur”

NOAA NWS Hurricane Florence Winds 09.10.18 1201pm

NOAA NWS Hurricane Florence Cone 09.10.18 1201pm

Hurricane Florence is still too far away to determine exactly where the eye will make landfall. However, anyone in the storm’s path will experience hurricane winds and extremely heavy rainfall.

From a meteorologist’s point of view, this is a gorgeous storm and the satellite imagery is breathtaking. Also, the advisories and warnings should be followed. Please do not put yourself or your family in danger. This is a powerful storm and nature’s force should be respected. This is short and I will post later when more information is available.

Take care,